Winter Outlook 2016/2017 and Summer Review 2016

Latest Updates (5)

Updated link to follow for Swiss updates.
Updated link to follow for French news.
Updated link to French Winter Adequacy Outlook 2016-2017 on the map.
Joint Winter Outlook 2016/17 webinar
Download the slides
Winter Outlook 2016/2017 and Summer Review 2016 report launched today. Check back here for any updates.
Download the report

ENTSO-E analyses possible risks for the security of supply in Europe twice per year: for the summer and winter periods. Because of possible very high/low temperatures and other 'extreme' weather conditions, winters and summers are more the most critical periods for the power grid.

Executive Summary

The analysis performed by ENTSO-E shows that all considered, even if the situation in France will be tense, Europe has sufficient generation to meet normal and severe demand conditions in the winter of 2016/2017.

France’s system adequacy

France is facing its lowest nuclear power generation in the last ten years: thirteen nuclear plants should be unavailable in December 2016 and nine at the beginning of January 2017 for safety tests and maintenance. This leads to a tense situation in France in the event of a severe cold wave in early December up to early February. Cold waves meaning temperatures 3 degrees below average in December and 5 degrees below average in January. The situation in France could affect neighbouring countries including Belgium and Great Britain.

RTE, the French transmission system operator (TSO) and Elia, the Belgian TSO, plan notably on using generation reserves and contracts with industrial consumers who accept to reduce or interrupt their consumption at peak times. Both TSOs will optimise their import capacities. Elia will notably maximise the cross-border capacities with the Netherlands.

Situation in Great Britain

Great Britain’s adequacy might also be impacted by the French situation. However National Grid, the transmission system in Great Britain, has a number of tools at its disposal to keep power flowing through the winter, including 3.5 GW of extra generation reserves. Under extreme circumstances, Great Britain has indeed additional capacity from Open Cycle Gas Turbines, pump-storage plants which are not considered in the Winter Outlook severe scenario but are expected by National Grid to be available to cover any deficit after imports. National Grid also expects there will be excess volumes of Short Term Operational Reserve (STOR) which can also be used.

Influence of gas supply

The joint analysis with ENTSOG shows the robustness of the European electricity system even with an interruption of gas transit through Ukraine.

Evolution of the generation capacity

The total generating capacity has increased by about 11 GW compared to the last year Winter Outlook. This increase is largely due to an expansion of the renewable energy sources (mainly wind and solar) whereas the conventional generation stayed almost stable (decommissioned oil and coal capacity being compensated by mainly gas and hydro).


Evolution of the total generation capacity from Winter Outlook 2015/2016 to Winter Outlook 2016/2017