Winter Outlook 2016/2017 and Summer Review 2016
Latest Updates (5)
ENTSO-E analyses possible risks for the security of supply in Europe twice per year: for the summer and winter periods. Because of possible very high/low temperatures and other 'extreme' weather conditions, winters and summers are more the most critical periods for the power grid.
Executive Summary
The analysis performed by ENTSO-E shows that all considered, even if the situation in France will be tense, Europe has sufficient generation to meet normal and severe demand conditions in the winter of 2016/2017.
France’s system adequacy
France is facing its lowest nuclear power generation in the last ten years: thirteen nuclear plants should be unavailable in December 2016 and nine at the beginning of January 2017 for safety tests and maintenance. This leads to a tense situation in France in the event of a severe cold wave in early December up to early February. Cold waves meaning temperatures 3 degrees below average in December and 5 degrees below average in January. The situation in France could affect neighbouring countries including Belgium and Great Britain.
RTE, the French transmission system operator (TSO) and Elia, the Belgian TSO, plan notably on using generation reserves and contracts with industrial consumers who accept to reduce or interrupt their consumption at peak times. Both TSOs will optimise their import capacities. Elia will notably maximise the cross-border capacities with the Netherlands.
Situation in Great Britain
Great Britain’s adequacy might also be impacted by the French situation. However National Grid, the transmission system in Great Britain, has a number of tools at its disposal to keep power flowing through the winter, including 3.5 GW of extra generation reserves. Under extreme circumstances, Great Britain has indeed additional capacity from Open Cycle Gas Turbines, pump-storage plants which are not considered in the Winter Outlook severe scenario but are expected by National Grid to be available to cover any deficit after imports. National Grid also expects there will be excess volumes of Short Term Operational Reserve (STOR) which can also be used.
Influence of gas supply
The joint analysis with ENTSOG shows the robustness of the European electricity system even with an interruption of gas transit through Ukraine.
Evolution of the generation capacity
The total generating capacity has increased by about 11 GW compared to the last year Winter Outlook. This increase is largely due to an expansion of the renewable energy sources (mainly wind and solar) whereas the conventional generation stayed almost stable (decommissioned oil and coal capacity being compensated by mainly gas and hydro).
Evolution of the total generation capacity from Winter Outlook 2015/2016 to Winter Outlook 2016/2017
Downloads
Previous Outlooks
Summer Outlook Reports
- Summer Outlook Report 2016 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2015 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2014 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2013 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2012 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2011 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2009 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2009 and Winter Review
Winter Outlook Reports
- Winter Outlook Report 2015/16 and Summer Review 2015
- Winter Outlook Report 2014/15 and Summer Review 2014
- Winter Outlook Report 2013/14 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2012/13 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2011/12 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2010/11 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2009/10 and Summer Review